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COMAC releases Market Forecast Report (2018-2037)
9,008 passenger aircraft valued approximately ¥9 trillion estimated to be delivered

Chinese market has strong demand for commercial aircraft over next 20 years

Last Updated (Beijing Time):2018-11-06   Source:News Center of COMAC
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During the 12th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC) released COMAC Market Forecast Report (2018-2037) on November 6th, 2018, and made analysis and forecast on the commercial aircraft market in China and the world over the next 20 years. Mr. Cheng Fubo, Member of Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Vice President of COMAC, attended the release ceremony and made a speech.

Mr. Cheng Fubo expressed in his speech that COMAC always paid great attention to the global aviation market, analyzed the rule of history development of aviation market and forecast the development trend of the future market, so as to provide a scientific prediction and share the research findings by annually releasing a global aviation market forecast report. With the development of the world economy, people's demand for fast and convenient means of transportation would be greater and greater, and commercial aircraft would play an indispensable role in transportation sector at present and in the future. He hoped that all parties could join hands to achieve common development, share interests and build a better future for the aviation industry.

The report forecasts that global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will increase at an average annual rate of 4.46% in the next 20 years based on the average growth rate of global economy at about 2.9%, and more than 42,702 new aircraft valued about $6 trillion (based on the list price of the aircraft in 2017) will be delivered globally to replace retired aircraft and support the development of fleet. Among which, approximately 4,816 turbofan regional jets valued more than $226.2 billion will be delivered; 29,691 single-aisle jets valued $2.98 trillion will be delivered; and 8,195 dual-aisle jets valued approximately $2.56 trillion will be delivered.

Along with the continuous increase of demand, the average number of seats and the operational efficiency of the aircraft will be increased gradually, and the growth rate of fleets in the world will be lower than that of RPK. It is expected that by 2037, the number of aircraft in global passenger aircraft fleet will reach 47,070, which will be 2.1 times of the current number (22,634). The Asia-Pacific region (including China) has the fastest-growing market, and its share in global aircraft fleet will increase from the current 31% to 41% in 2037; by 2037, the proportion of Chinese market accounted for the global passenger aircraft fleet will increase from the current 16% to 21%.

The report points out that 2018 marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up policy, and the 5th anniversary of "The Belt and Road Initiative". Over the past five years, the initiative has undergone the transformation from nothing to something and from vision to reality, and gained wide recognition from the international community. "Connection in facilities" is one of the main elements of the "The Belt and Road Initiative". As an important part of it, the aviation market from China to B&R countries is advancing steadily. 65 countries have signed air transportation agreements with Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), and 47 countries have opened direct flights to China.

The report forecasts that China's economic growth rate will continue to be relatively high in the next 20 years, and the steady economic growth will bring the development of air transportation industry. Based on the average annual growth rate of China's GDP, it is estimated that the average annual growth rate of fleet is 5.3%, and the average annual growth rate of RPK is 6.5%. By 2037, China's RPK will reach 3.9 trillion kilometers, which will take a proportion of 21% in the global RPK.

By 2037, the number of aircraft in China's fleet will reach 9,965, among which 6,656 are single-aisle jets, 2,343 are dual-aisle jets and 966 are regional jets. It is estimated that 9,008 passenger aircraft valued approximately $1.3 trillion (approximately ¥9 trillion) will be delivered in China in the next 20 years. Among which single-aisle jets will take 66% amounting to 5,964, and 160 seat-class single-aisle passenger aircraft will be prominent amounting to 4,284; dual-aisle jets will take 23% amounting to 2,102, and 250 seat-class passenger aircraft will be prominent amounting to 1,421; regional jets will take 11% amounting to 942, and 90 seat-class passenger aircraft will be prominent.

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